We may have reached a tipping point in our tolerance of the declining quality of web search results on Google. At least that is how it appears with the growing commentary on the subject from influential bloggers, writers in the news media and searchers as well.
A meme in the making?
What is worth noting now is that, half a decade after so many people began unquestioningly modifying their sites to serve Google’s needs better, there may start to be enough critical mass for the pendulum to swing back to earlier days, when Google modified its workings to suit the web’s existing behaviors.
Many more bloggers are chiming in about the same matter, as this BlogPulse Conversation Tracker listing shows.
Meanwhile, at LifeHacker, over 77% of readers say that Google’s search results are less useful lately:
We asked readers last week whether what influential bloggers said was true—that Google was losing the war against search result spam. Your response? More than three quarters found Google prone to spam, with one-third tagging the decline as significant.
Michael Rosenwald wrote in the Washington post about the losing battle against spam in search results:
Google’s success rate, as measured by the percentage of users visiting a Web site after executing a search, fell 13 percent last year, according to Experian Hitwise, which monitors Web traffic. Microsoft’s Bing search engine increased its search efficiency by 9 percent over the same period.
Although there could be several reasons for the disparity, one is most certainly spam in Google’s results, analysts said.
“It’s clear that Google is losing some kind of war with the spammers,” said tech guru Tim O’Reilly, who often cheers Google’s technology. “I think Google has in some ways taken their eye off the ball, and I’d be worried about it if I were them.”
For years, Google’s organic search results have been experiencing a slow decline in quality. Paul Kedrosky writes about this in a recent blog post:
What has happened is that Google’s ranking algorithm, like any trading algorithm, has lost its alpha. It no longer has lists to draw and, on its own, it no longer generates the same outperformance — in part because it is, for practical purposes, reverse-engineered, well-understood and operating in an adaptive content landscape. Search results in many categories are now honey pots embedded in ruined landscapes — traps for the unwary. It has turned search back into something like it was in the dying days of first-generation algorithmic search, like Excite and Altavista: results so polluted by spam that you often started looking at results only on the second or third page — the first page was a smoking hulk of algo-optimized awfulness.
Would Google care?
One thing I personally do wonder about is just how important is this issue to Google in 2011 and beyond, as compared to when they started in 1999! In my earlier post on this blog, I wrote about the ongoing relevance of search relevance to Google:
I have no doubt that Google’s relevance with organic search results will improve yet again, given the rise in negative commentary about it in influential pockets of the Internet. However, the pertinent question to ask is this: Why would an advertising giant care more about relevance of organic search results any more than absolutely necessary to keep their revenue proposition in tact? Or, asked another way, is search relevance ever likely to be as relevant as ad relevance to Google?
Should Google care?
What is the practical threat to Google? It seems that all this isn’t really affecting Google’s stable search market share or its growing ad revenues in any meaningful way! But there are others who see 2011 as a turning point for Google’s invincibility.
Niall Harbison wrote recently about the perfect storm coming together to unhinge Google, that too in 2011. He cites real time search, friend recommendations, the Like button from Facebook, the rise of spam, the possibility of categorized human knowledge and Bing as some of the key factors that could unseat Google as the search king.:
For years it seemed as if Google could do no wrong and the competition be it search start ups, Yahoo or Microsoft was generally batted away with disdain. The landscape has changed over the last 18 months though and Google faces a very real danger that it’s core product could come under threat and I think 2011 will be the year where we see the first cracks start to appear in Google’s once invincible search armor.
I am not ready to predict anything about Google’s future. I myself have been a Google addict, and I respect their talent and innovations to date greatly. I am interested in all this in a very deep and personal way. I been in the search engine space, dabbling with search engine technologies since 1996. But more importantly, my startup, Zakta is set to introduce an innovative search tool that we hope is very relevant to the problems we face with search today, and very useful as well. SearchTeam.com is in private beta now, and offers unique ways to search the Web, curate what you need, personally or in collaboration with others you trust.
What is your take on this?